Polymarket bettors correctly predict Trump conviction

76% thought that the court would find former US president Trump guilty

With Donald Trump’s hush-money trial in the hands of the jury, attention has turned to Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, where bettors have been wagering on the outcome. The former president and Republican nominee for 2024 faced 34 counts of felony falsifying business records over payments made to Stormy Daniels.

On Polymarket’s platform users can place bets on binary outcomes. One question was whether Trump will be found guilty. Bettors on Polymarket gave about a 76% chance of him guilty, having staked roughly $115,000. This was slightly lower than April when the odds were as high as 83%.

Today Trump was indeed convicted on all 34 felony counts related to the hush money scheme in connection with Stormy Daniels. Thus, Trump became the first former US president that has been convicted of felony.

The trial revolved around allegations that Michael Cohen, an attorney for Trump, just before the 2016 election paid Daniels $130,000 to keep quiet about an alleged affair she claims to have had with him in 2006. Trump, however, has denied any association with Daniels.

The legal problem comes from charges that Cohen was reimbursed by Trump and then the former president misrepresented those payments as “legal expenses” in business records. Prosecutors say this was done purposefully in order to hide what they really were for.

Crypto bettors have a strong history in such high-profile cases. Polymarket users have already correctly predicted outcomes among other legal battles featuring figures from the cryptocurrency world like Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao or FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried.

Now there is a new betting market on Polymarket that tries to guess whether Trump will go to prison before November’s presidential election. According Polymarket bettors there is only a 17% probability he does — down from 25% earlier this month. Over $897,000 has been wagered on that question alone suggesting both strong interest levels as well financial stakes being put up in connection with it.

However, legal experts note that even as Trump was found guilty the chances of him actually going to jail before Election Day are remote. His lawyers are likely to appeal any conviction, which could push back the final judgment and sentencing until after voters have cast their ballots.

Polymarket is not only attracting attention for Trump bets but also other political predictions like the 2024 presidential election, where according to bettors Trump currently has a 56% chance of winning — President Joe Biden trails at 37%.

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Written by Silvia Pavlof

Silvia has explored various forms of writing, ranging from content creation for social media to crafting movie scripts. Drawing on her experience as a journalist specializing in the gambling sector, she is currently investigating the impact of cryptocurrencies and blockchain on traditional gambling and iGaming.

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