Polymarket bettors’ confidence in Trump surges

54% believe Trump will win, while only 40% bet on Biden

Betting markets have seen a remarkable change in former President Donald Trump’s prospects to win the US elections lately. In the 2024 elections, bettors on Polymarket are becoming more confident of his chances of winning by the day despite his legal predicaments following 34 convictions for crimes connected to hush-money payments.

Polymarket is a well-known prediction markets platform that uses the Polygon blockchain and hosts a continuing bet named “Presidential Election Winner 2024.” As of June 9, more than $155m has already been staked on this question alone.

Last week had Trump at 54% while President Joe Biden had only 40% of bets in his favor. However, over recent days these numbers changed even further. Trump is now leading with 56% against Biden’s new low point of just 34%, marking significant movement within the week.

It is interesting to note that Michelle Obama who has not announced her candidacy saw an improvement in perceived chances. There have been speculations around her possible run for president which doubled from 3% to 6% recently. Notably, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent candidate, stayed steady at around 2%.

At the end of May, Polymarket bettors predicted correctly that Trump would be convicted on all 34 counts of felony he was charged with. 76% of Polymarket bettors thought that the court would find Trump guilty.

Notably, Trump's odds have shown extra resilience after his conviction. This event did not influence them significantly but rather confirmed market expectations about the outcome. This implies widespread belief among traders that Trump will escape prison and remain eligible for the presidency.

The probability assigned by Polymarket for his incarceration is just one in four, a mere 25%, 67% of Polymarket bettors believe he will be given no jail time at all.

On PredictIt – a US betting platform where people can stake real money legally on political events – it appears, however, that Trump still leads over Biden albeit with a narrower difference than on Polymarket. Still the PredictIt numbers post-conviction did not budge proving bettors’ confidence in his chances to win the US elections.

Additionally, Trump is unlikely to serve a prison sentence according to legal experts, a sentiment echoed by the prediction markets. This consensus further bolsters his viability as a candidate for president even with all these legal issues hanging over him.

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Written by Silvia Pavlof

Silvia has explored various forms of writing, ranging from content creation for social media to crafting movie scripts. Drawing on her experience as a journalist specializing in the gambling sector, she is currently investigating the impact of cryptocurrencies and blockchain on traditional gambling and iGaming.

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